Panel 1
Emanuele Peschi, Daniela Romano
The indicator represents projections of national greenhouse gas emissions up to 2040, based on the current policies scenario as of 31/12/2022, including those implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), as well as the additional policies and measures scenario defined in the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP). The scenarios are calculated starting from the most recent consolidated historical data for 2022, and reflect the expected evolution of key macroeconomic drivers as reported to the European Commission. The projected reductions in total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF) by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, are estimated at -38% under the current policies scenario and -49% under the additional measures scenario.
The indicator describes the scenarios developed by ISPRA and officially submitted to the European Commission in July 2024, as included in the June 2024 update of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP), in accordance with Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. Greenhouse gas emission projections are presented disaggregated by sector.
Assess the projected trend of national greenhouse gas emissions, with reference to the targets set under the European Union policies and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Italy ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, following the 'Rio Earth Summit' of 1992. The Convention aims to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents human activities from altering the climate system. The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997 and in force since 2005, serves as the implementation tool for the Convention. Italy was committed to reducing its total national greenhouse gas emissions by 6.5% compared to 1990 levels within the period 2008-2012. The Protocol set an overall reduction target of 5.2% for industrialized countries, while the European Union's target was an 8% reduction. In Italy, the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions is ensured by ISPRA, through Legislative Decree No. 51 of 7 March 2008 and Legislative Decree No. 30 of 13 March 2013, which establish the National System for the inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. Subsequently, the Law of 3 May 2016, No. 79, ratifying the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, established the National System for policies and measures and projections, for which ISPRA is responsible.
The European Union and its Member States, under the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and later under the 2012 Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement, initially aimed to reduce their collective emissions by 40% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. In December 2020, the EU's binding climate target for 2030 was updated to a net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (net of removals) by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels by 2030.
At the national level, specific emission caps are set for emissions covered by Regulation (EU) 2018/842, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/857, which includes emissions from Transport, Buildings, Agriculture, Non-ETS Industry, and Waste. For Italy, the current target is a 43.7% reduction compared to 2005 levels.
Panel 2
ISPRA, Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Report https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NIR2024-Rapporto-398-2024.pdf
UNFCCC, Italy, First Biennial Transparency Report, November 2024
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CTF-NDC-2024-V1.2-20241120-141742_awaiting%20approval.xlsx
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/National%20Inventory%20Document%202024%20-%20Italy.pdf
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CRT-2024-V1.0-20241115-162239_awaiting%20submission.zip
Data quality assessment
ISPRA (Institute for Environmental Protection and Research
National
1990-2040
Indicator assessment
Based on the historical series from 1990 to 2022 of greenhouse gas emissions estimates officially reported by ISPRA under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – see the indicator: 'Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Sectoral Breakdown' – projections have been developed up to 2040, with sectoral detail, considering the current policies scenario as of 31/12/2022 and the scenario incorporating the adoption of additional policies established by the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP).
The projections of net total greenhouse gas emissions under the current policies scenario for 2030 show a reduction of 38% when including removals. In order to adequately contribute to the achievement of the net emissions reduction target set for the entire European Union (-55% by 2030) (Table 1, Figure 1), additional policies need to be adopted.
Under the current policies scenario, the estimated net greenhouse gas emissions for 2030 are reduced by 38% compared to 1990 levels. Emissions covered by the 'Effort Sharing' Regulation (EU) 2018/842 for 2030, under the current policies scenario and the additional policies scenario, are reduced by 29% and 42%, respectively, compared to 2005 levels, against a target currently set at 43.7% (Tables 1 and 2, and Figure 2). Although the trend is positive in all scenarios, as emissions are decreasing compared to previous years, the expected trajectory does not align with the annual maximum emission allocations and does not allow for the achievement of the 43.7% reduction target. This trend, even under the additional policies scenario, is therefore insufficient.
Data
Table 1: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by sector under the current policies scenario
ISPRA
Table 2: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by sector under the INECP scenario
ISPRA
Figure 1: Trend and projections of total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF)
ISPRA
Figure 2: Trend and projections of greenhouse gas emissions subject to the 'Effort Sharing' regulation
ISPRA
"Considering total greenhouse gas emissions, the largest reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 is estimated in the energy industries sector (power plants, refineries, and coke plants) both under the current policies scenario and the additional policies scenario, with reductions of approximately -61% and -71%, respectively. For this sector, the measures adopted so far, including those under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), are highly significant and aligned with the achievement of European targets (Tables 1 and 2).
Under the current policies scenario, emissions related to energy use (energy sector) decrease by about 36%, while non-energy emissions (industrial processes, agriculture, and waste) decrease by about 21% (Table 1). Under the additional policies scenario, energy-related emissions further decrease to -49%, while non-energy emissions show a smaller reduction, reaching -22% (Table 2).
The energy sectors are affected by both the effects of the economic crisis around 2010 and the policies adopted regarding renewable energy sources and energy efficiency. The most challenging sectors are Transport and Residential, where the measures under the NRRP have little impact on emissions reduction (Table 1), whereas in the additional policies scenario, the expected reduction in these sectors increases significantly. Specifically, transport emissions reduce from -9% to -30%, and residential emissions from -12% to -30% (Table 2). The emissions from these sectors have become increasingly critical for meeting the reduction targets (Effort Sharing). In order to comply with the commitments imposed on Italy by EU legislation, it is also necessary to immediately adopt more effective policies to rationalize private transport and reduce demand (Figure 2).