Panel 1
Emanuele Peschi, Daniela Romano
The indicator represents projections of national greenhouse gas emissions up to 2055, considering the scenario based on policies in place as of 31 December 2022 — thus including those under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) — and the scenario with additional policies and measures defined by the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC).
The scenario was developed starting from the latest consolidated historical data for 2023, as well as the expected evolution of key macroeconomic drivers according to the information provided to the European Commission.
Information available for 2024 and data relating to the first seven months of 2025 were also taken into account.
The projected reductions in total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF) estimated for 2030 compared to 1990 are -42% in the current policies scenario and -53% in the additional policies scenario.
The indicator describes the scenarios developed by ISPRA and officially submitted to the European Commission in July 2024, which constitute an update of those included in the PNIEC of June 2024, pursuant to Regulation (EU) 1999/2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action.
Further updates were introduced following the conclusion of the review process pursuant to Article 38, paragraph 1-bis of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999, Article 4, paragraph 4 of Regulation (EU) 2018/841, and Article 4, paragraph 3 of Regulation (EU) 2018/842.
The purpose is to assess the projected trend of national greenhouse gas emissions with reference to the objectives defined under the policies of the European Union and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Italy ratified in 1994 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), established during the 1992 "Rio Earth Summit". The objective of the Convention is to stabilize, at a global level, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997 and in force since 2005, constitutes the implementing instrument of the Convention. Italy committed to reducing its total national greenhouse gas emissions by 6.5% compared to 1990 levels within the 2008–2012 period. The Protocol established an overall reduction target of 5.2% for industrialized countries, while for the European Union countries the collective reduction target was 8%.
In Italy, the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions is ensured by ISPRA through Legislative Decree No. 51 of 7 March 2008 and Legislative Decree No. 30 of 13 March 2013, which establish the National System for the greenhouse gas emissions inventory. Subsequently, Law No. 79 of 3 May 2016, ratifying the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC, established the National System for policies, measures, and projections, for which ISPRA is responsible.
The European Union and its Member States, within the framework of the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and subsequently the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol (2012) and the Paris Agreement (2015), had initially committed to reducing their collective emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
In December 2020, the Union’s binding climate target for 2030 was updated to a net domestic reduction of at least 55% in greenhouse gas emissions (emissions after deduction of removals) compared to 1990 levels by 2030.
At the level of individual Member States, maximum emission ceilings have been established for the sectors falling within the scope of Regulation (EU) 2018/842, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/857 — namely Transport, Buildings, Agriculture, Industry not covered by the Emissions Trading System (ETS), and Waste.
For Italy, the current target consists of a reduction of 43.7% compared to 2005 levels, net of the EEA adjustments provided for in Article 10(1)(c) (derogations to ETS in phase 4) and the adjustments referred to in Article 10(2) of Regulation (EU) 2018/842.
Panel 2
ISPRA, various years. Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Report https://emissioni. sina. isprambiente. it/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NIR2024-Rappello-398-2024. pdf
UNFCCC, Italy, First Biennial Transparency Report, November 2024
https://unfccc. int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CTF-NDC-2024-V1.2-20241120-141742_awaiting%20approval. xlsx
https://unfccc. int/sites/default/files/resource/National%20Inventory%20Document%202024%20-%20Italy. pdf
https://unfccc. int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CRT-2024-V1.0-20241115-162239_awaiting%20submission. zip
Data quality assessment
ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research)
National
1990-2055
Indicator assessment
Starting from the 1990–2023 historical series of greenhouse gas emission estimates officially reported by ISPRA under the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) — see the indicator “Greenhouse gas emissions: sectoral breakdown” — projections up to 2055 were developed at the sectoral level, considering both the scenario with policies in place as of 31/12/2022 and the scenario including additional policies established by the PNIEC.
The projections of total net greenhouse gas emissions for 2030, under current policies, show a reduction of 42% when removals are included.
In order to adequately contribute to achieving the net emission reduction target set for the entire European Union (-55% by 2030) (Table 1, Figure 1), it is therefore necessary to adopt additional policies.
Considering the current policies scenario, net greenhouse gas emissions estimated for 2030 are projected to decrease by 42% compared to 1990.
Emissions falling within the scope of the "Effort Sharing" Regulation (EU) 2018/842, in 2030, are expected to decrease by 30.3% under the current policies scenario and by 40.5% under the additional policies scenario compared to 2005 levels, against a target currently set at 43.7% (Tables 1 and 2, and Figure 2).
Although the trend is positive in all scenarios, as emissions continue to decline compared to past years, the expected trajectory does not align with the annual emission allocation limits and does not allow the achievement of the 43.7% reduction target.
Therefore, even under the additional policies scenario, the projected trend remains insufficient.
Data
Table 1: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions, by sector, in the current policy scenario
ISPRA
Table 2: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by sector under the PNIEC scenario
ISPRA
Figure 1: Trend and projections of total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF)
ISPRA
Figure 2: Trend and projections of greenhouse gas emissions subject to the “Effort Sharing” Regulation
ISPRA
Considering total greenhouse gas emissions, the largest reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 is projected for the energy industries sector (power plants, refineries, and coke ovens) — both under the current policies and additional policies scenarios — amounting respectively to approximately -59% and -73%.
For this sector, the measures adopted so far, including those under the NRRP, are proving to be highly significant and consistent with the achievement of EU targets (Tables 1 and 2).
In the current policies scenario, emissions related to energy uses (energy sector) decrease by about 36%, while non-energy-related emissions (Industrial Processes, Agriculture, and Waste) decrease by about 30% (Table 1).
In the additional policies scenario, energy-related emissions further decrease to -49%, while non-energy emissions show a more limited reduction, reaching -31% (Table 2).
In the energy sectors, the results reflect both the effects of the economic crisis of the early 2010s and the policies adopted regarding renewable energy sources and energy efficiency.
The most critical sectors are Transport and Residential, where the NRRP measures have limited impact in terms of emission reductions (Table 1), whereas in the additional policies scenario, the expected reduction in these sectors increases considerably.
Specifically, emissions from the transport sector are projected to decrease from -9% to -30%, and those from the residential sector from -13% to -27% (Table 2).
Emissions from these sectors have become increasingly decisive in meeting reduction targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation.
To comply with the commitments imposed on Italy by EU legislation, it is therefore necessary to immediately adopt additional and more incisive policies aimed at rationalizing private transport and reducing its demand (Figure 2).