GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCS, PFCS, SF6): TREND AND PROJECTIONS

    Descrizione 1
    Update date
    Authors

    Emanuele Peschi, Daniela Romano

    Abstract
    Immagine
    Abstract

    The indicator represents projections of national greenhouse gas emissions up to 2040, based on the current policies scenario as of 31/12/2022, including those implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), as well as the additional policies and measures scenario defined in the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP). The scenarios are calculated starting from the most recent consolidated historical data for 2022, and reflect the expected evolution of key macroeconomic drivers as reported to the European Commission. The projected reductions in total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF) by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, are estimated at -38% under the current policies scenario and -49% under the additional measures scenario.

    Description

    The indicator describes the scenarios developed by ISPRA and officially submitted to the European Commission in July 2024, as included in the June 2024 update of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP), in accordance with Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. Greenhouse gas emission projections are presented disaggregated by sector.

    Purpose

    Assess the projected trend of national greenhouse gas emissions, with reference to the targets set under the European Union policies and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

    Policy relevance and utility for users
    It is of national scope or it is applicable to environmental issues at the regional level but of national relevance.
    It can describe the trend without necessarily evaluating it.
    It is simple and easy to interpret.
    It is sensitive to changes occurring in the environment and/or in human activities
    It provides a representative picture of environmental conditions, environmental pressures, and societal responses
    It provides a basis for international comparisons.
    Ha una soglia o un valore di riferimento con cui può essere confrontato
    Analytical soundness
    Be based on international standards and international consensus about its validity;
    Be theoretically well founded in technical and scientific terms
    Presents reliability and validity of measurement and data collection methods
    Temporal comparability
    Spatial comparability
    Measurability (data)
    Adequately documented and of known quality
    Updated at regular intervals in accordance with reliable procedures
    Readily available or made available at a reasonable cost/benefit ratio
    An “adequate” spatial coverage
    An “appropriate” temporal coverage
    Main regulatory references and objectives

    Italy ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, following the 'Rio Earth Summit' of 1992. The Convention aims to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents human activities from altering the climate system. The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997 and in force since 2005, serves as the implementation tool for the Convention. Italy was committed to reducing its total national greenhouse gas emissions by 6.5% compared to 1990 levels within the period 2008-2012. The Protocol set an overall reduction target of 5.2% for industrialized countries, while the European Union's target was an 8% reduction. In Italy, the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions is ensured by ISPRA, through Legislative Decree No. 51 of 7 March 2008 and Legislative Decree No. 30 of 13 March 2013, which establish the National System for the inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. Subsequently, the Law of 3 May 2016, No. 79, ratifying the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, established the National System for policies and measures and projections, for which ISPRA is responsible.

    The European Union and its Member States, under the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and later under the 2012 Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement, initially aimed to reduce their collective emissions by 40% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. In December 2020, the EU's binding climate target for 2030 was updated to a net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (net of removals) by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels by 2030.

    At the national level, specific emission caps are set for emissions covered by Regulation (EU) 2018/842, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/857, which includes emissions from Transport, Buildings, Agriculture, Non-ETS Industry, and Waste. For Italy, the current target is a 43.7% reduction compared to 2005 levels.

    DPSIR
    Pressure
    Indicator type
    Performance (B)
    References

    ISPRA, Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Report https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NIR2024-Rapporto-398-2024.pdf

    UNFCCC, Italy, First Biennial Transparency Report, November 2024
    https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CTF-NDC-2024-V1.2-20241120-141742_awaiting%20approval.xlsx
    https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/National%20Inventory%20Document%202024%20-%20Italy.pdf
    https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CRT-2024-V1.0-20241115-162239_awaiting%20submission.zip

    Frequenza di rilevazione dei dati
    Annuale
    Fonte dei dati
    ISPRA
    Spatial coverage

    National

    Time coverage

    1990-2040

    Processing methodology

    Based on the historical series from 1990 to 2022 of greenhouse gas emissions estimates officially reported by ISPRA under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – see the indicator: 'Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Sectoral Breakdown' – projections have been developed up to 2040, with sectoral detail, considering the current policies scenario as of 31/12/2022 and the scenario incorporating the adoption of additional policies established by the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP).

    Update frequency
    Year
    Qualità dell'informazione

    Information on greenhouse gas emission projections is essential for verifying the achievement of national and international targets. The estimates are calculated in accordance with the transparency, accuracy, consistency, comparability, and completeness requirements of the reference methodology.

    State
    Poor
    Trend
    Negative
    State assessment/description

    The projections of net total greenhouse gas emissions under the current policies scenario for 2030 show a reduction of 38% when including removals. In order to adequately contribute to the achievement of the net emissions reduction target set for the entire European Union (-55% by 2030) (Table 1, Figure 1), additional policies need to be adopted.

    Trend assessment/description

    Under the current policies scenario, the estimated net greenhouse gas emissions for 2030 are reduced by 38% compared to 1990 levels. Emissions covered by the 'Effort Sharing' Regulation (EU) 2018/842 for 2030, under the current policies scenario and the additional policies scenario, are reduced by 29% and 42%, respectively, compared to 2005 levels, against a target currently set at 43.7% (Tables 1 and 2, and Figure 2). Although the trend is positive in all scenarios, as emissions are decreasing compared to previous years, the expected trajectory does not align with the annual maximum emission allocations and does not allow for the achievement of the 43.7% reduction target. This trend, even under the additional policies scenario, is therefore insufficient.

    Comments

    "Considering total greenhouse gas emissions, the largest reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 is estimated in the energy industries sector (power plants, refineries, and coke plants) both under the current policies scenario and the additional policies scenario, with reductions of approximately -61% and -71%, respectively. For this sector, the measures adopted so far, including those under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), are highly significant and aligned with the achievement of European targets (Tables 1 and 2).
    Under the current policies scenario, emissions related to energy use (energy sector) decrease by about 36%, while non-energy emissions (industrial processes, agriculture, and waste) decrease by about 21% (Table 1). Under the additional policies scenario, energy-related emissions further decrease to -49%, while non-energy emissions show a smaller reduction, reaching -22% (Table 2).
    The energy sectors are affected by both the effects of the economic crisis around 2010 and the policies adopted regarding renewable energy sources and energy efficiency. The most challenging sectors are Transport and Residential, where the measures under the NRRP have little impact on emissions reduction (Table 1), whereas in the additional policies scenario, the expected reduction in these sectors increases significantly. Specifically, transport emissions reduce from -9% to -30%, and residential emissions from -12% to -30% (Table 2). The emissions from these sectors have become increasingly critical for meeting the reduction targets (Effort Sharing). In order to comply with the commitments imposed on Italy by EU legislation, it is also necessary to immediately adopt more effective policies to rationalize private transport and reduce demand (Figure 2).

    Data
    Headline

    Table 1: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by sector under the current policies scenario

    Data source

    ISPRA

    Headline

    Table 2: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by sector under the INECP scenario

    Data source

    ISPRA

    Thumbnail
    Headline

    Figure 1: Trend and projections of total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF)

    Data source

    ISPRA

    Thumbnail
    Headline

    Figure 2: Trend and projections of greenhouse gas emissions subject to the 'Effort Sharing' regulation

    Data source

    ISPRA

    English