Panel 1
Antonio Caputo
The indicator consists of the share of greenhouse gas emissions generated by installations covered under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), established by Directive 2003/87/EC, as well as emissions from all sectors not included in the ETS—namely small- and medium-scale industry, transport, residential and commercial buildings, agriculture, and waste. These non-ETS emissions were regulated under the Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No. 406/2009/EC) up to 2020 and, from 2021 onward, under the Effort Sharing Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2018/842).In 2020, emissions from the non-ETS sectors were below the national annual target of 37 MtCO₂eq. However, from 2021 onwards, emissions have not aligned with the annual reduction targets set under the Effort Sharing Regulation.
The indicator includes the emission allowances up to 2020 generated by installations covered under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), established by Directive 2003/87/EC, as well as the greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors not included under the ETS scope—specifically small- and medium-sized industry, transport, buildings (residential and commercial), agriculture, and waste. These non-ETS sector emissions are regulated under the Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No. 406/2009/EC) up to 2020, and from 2021 onwards, by the Effort Sharing Regulation (EU) 2018/842 (ESR).
Monitoring the emissions trajectory of large industrial installations under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and tracking national targets for emissions from sectors not covered by the ETS—such as transport, residential and commercial buildings, agriculture, waste, and small to medium-sized industry—is essential for compliance with climate obligations. These non-ETS sector emissions were governed by the Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No. 406/2009/EC) up to 2020, and are currently regulated under the Effort Sharing Regulation (EU) 2018/842 (ESR) from 2021 onward.
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), Effort Sharing Regulation, and Related Legislative Developments in the Context of the European Green Deal
Directive 2009/29/EC amended Directive 2003/87/EC to enhance and expand the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), establishing a single EU-wide emissions cap from 2013 onward. Under this directive, the total quantity of emission allowances available is reduced annually by 1.74%, leading to a 21% decrease in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. The scope of the EU ETS was also expanded to include additional greenhouse gases (GHGs) and economic activities.
The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD), Decision No. 406/2009/EC, assigned binding national GHG reduction targets for sectors not covered by the ETS—such as transport, buildings, agriculture, waste, and small industries—for the period 2013–2020. Italy was allocated a 13% reduction target by 2020 relative to 2005 levels, with mandatory annual compliance targets during the commitment period.
Additional legislative updates include:
Regulation (EU) 2017/2392, which amended Directive 2003/87/EC to preserve the scope of aviation activities under the ETS and to prepare for the global market-based measure under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) from 2021 onwards.
Directive (EU) 2018/410, which introduced further revisions to Directive 2003/87/EC, aiming to improve cost-effective emissions reductions and incentivize low-carbon investments. It also aligned with Decision (EU) 2015/1814 concerning the Market Stability Reserve.
In alignment with the European Green Deal, the EU updated its 2030 climate and energy policy framework, committing to:
A 55% net reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 relative to 1990,
A minimum 42.5% share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption (with a political aim of reaching 45%, as per the provisional agreement of 2023),
An improvement in energy efficiency by at least 36% in final energy consumption and 39% in primary energy consumption compared to the projected baseline (based on the PRIMES 2007 model).
To achieve these targets, Directive (EU) 2023/959 reformed and extended the EU ETS to new sectors, including road transport and buildings. By 2030:
ETS-covered sectors must reduce emissions by 62% compared to 2005 levels,
Non-ETS sectors (under the Effort Sharing Regulation – ESR, Regulation (EU) 2018/842) are required to achieve a 40% reduction at the EU level, with binding national targets.
For Italy, the ESR target is a 43.7% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to 2005. Annual targets for 2021–2030 are outlined in Implementing Decision (EU) 2020/2126, which allocates the Annual Emission Allocations (AEAs) per Member State.
Panel 2
EEA, Trends and projections in Europe 2024. EEA Report No 11/2024
Data quality assessment
ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale)
Inventario Nazionale delle emissioni in atmosfera - https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/inventario-nazionale
Nazionale
2005-2023
Indicator assessment
For the calculation of the 2020 target for the ESD sectors (regulated by the Effort Sharing Decision), the greenhouse gas emissions for 2005 were set based on the emissions recorded in the 2005 inventory published in 2011 (582.1 Mt CO2eq). From this value, the CO2 emissions from civil aviation (2.2 Mt CO2), emissions from ETS sectors (226 Mt CO2eq), and emissions from plants that entered the ETS system in the 2008-2012 period (5.9 Mt CO2eq) must be subtracted. The resulting value is then subject to a -13% reduction target for 2020, with a linear reduction from 2013 for the annual targets. The emissions calculated for 2005 for the purpose of assigning targets are equal to 348 Mt CO2eq. The calculation of annual allocations from 2013 to 2020 also involves subtracting the contribution from plants that entered the ETS system from 2013 onwards. The level of annual emissions from the ESD sectors is calculated by subtracting emissions from ETS sectors, CO2 emissions from domestic aviation, and NF3 emissions from total greenhouse gas emissions. From 2021 onwards, the level of annual emissions from the ESR sectors (regulated by the Effort Sharing Regulation) is calculated by subtracting emissions from ETS sectors and CO2 emissions from domestic aviation from total greenhouse gas emissions.
Emissions from the ETS sectors, for which no national targets are set, amounted to 114.8 MtCO₂eq in 2023, representing a 15.8% decrease compared to 2022. Emissions from the ESR (Effort Sharing Regulation) sectors were 267.6 MtCO₂eq in 2023, down by 2.4% compared to the previous year. However, since 2021, emissions from the ESR sectors have not been in line with the annual targets set under the Effort Sharing Regulation. Specifically, the emission levels exceeded the annual targets by 5.5 MtCO₂eq in 2021, 5.4 MtCO₂eq in 2022, and 8.2 MtCO₂eq in 2023 (see Table 1 and Figure 1).
In 2023, emissions from the ETS sectors showed a 49.2% reduction compared to 2005 levels. Over the same period, emissions from the Effort Sharing sectors decreased by 26.1% (see Table 1 and Figure 1).
The observed emission trends are partly attributable to policies aimed at reducing the environmental impact of industrial sectors and improving energy efficiency in the residential and tertiary sectors. Additionally, the overall trajectory has been influenced by macroeconomic factors, including the economic crisis, which significantly affected some of the sectors with high greenhouse gas emissions.
Emissions in 2020 were also notably impacted by lockdown measures implemented to contain the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which led to a temporary halt in various economic activities. This was followed by a partial rebound in 2021 and 2022, and then a renewed decrease in emissions observed in 2023.
Data
Table 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from ETS and ESR Sectors
ISPRA
* For the purpose of comparison with the 2020 targets, the historical emission series up to 2020 is reported without applying the recalculation and the updated Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) introduced from 2021 onward.
** The target levels from 2006 to 2012 are calculated as an interpolation between the years 2005 and 2013 and do not represent official national targets.
Figure 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from ETS and ESD Sectors
ISPRA
* For the purpose of comparison with the 2020 targets, the historical emission series up to 2020 is reported without applying the recalculation and the updated Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) introduced from 2021 onward.
** The target levels from 2006 to 2012 are calculated as an interpolation between the years 2005 and 2013 and do not represent official national targets.
The targets set for the ESD sectors in 2020 were largely achieved. However, starting from 2021, a significant exceedance of the emission ceilings established for the 2021–2030 period has been observed (see Table 1 and Figure 1). This indicator reflects the national trajectory toward a low-carbon economy. Overall, emissions have decreased since 2005, yet further efforts are required to meet the targets set for the ESR sectors under the 2021–2030 compliance period.