Descrizione 1
Angelo Santini, Fabio Tatti
In 2023, the Italian economy experienced a more moderate growth compared to previous years, with the Gross Domestic Product and Final Consumption Expenditure on the national territory increasing by 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively, compared to 2022. Municipal waste generation showed a slight increase (+0.7%) following a 1.8% decline recorded over the previous two-year period (2021–2022).
This indicator measures the total amount of municipal waste generated in Italy in relation to GDP (chain-linked values, reference year 2015) and household expenditure (chain-linked values, reference year 2015).
To measure the total amount of waste generated and the correlation between waste generation and socio-economic indicators.
Directive 2008/98/CE, Legislative Decree No. 152/2006, Legislative Decree No. 205/2010 Ministerial Decree of May 26, 2016, containing “Linee guida per il calcolo della percentuale di raccolta differenziata dei rifiuti urbani”
The National Waste Prevention Program, established under Article 180, paragraph 1-bis of Legislative Decree No. 152/2006 and issued by the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security (MASE) with a directive decree on October 7, 2013, identifies municipal waste generation per unit of GDP as one of the monitored parameters for assessing the effectiveness of implemented measures. A target was set for a 5% reduction, compared to 2010 levels, to be achieved by 2020.
Descrizione 2
ISPRA - Rapporto Rifiuti Urbani (various editions)
http://dati.istat.it/
Qualificazione dati
The data on waste generation at the national scale, as well as disaggregated by macro-geographical area, region, province, and municipality, are freely accessible and downloadable from the website www.catasto-rifiuti.isprambiente.it. Economic indicator data can be retrieved from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) at http://dati.istat.it/.
Nazionale
2002-2023
Qualificazione indicatore
The indicator is obtained by relating the total amount of municipal waste generated in Italy to GDP (chain-linked values, reference year 2015), as well as to the consumption of both resident and non-resident households within the economic territory (chain-linked values, reference year 2015).
In 2023, municipal waste generation registered a slight increase (+0.7%), paralleling the growth in GDP (+0.4%) and household consumption (+0.7%). With regard to the waste prevention target set by the Ministerial Decree of 7 October 2013—which aims for a 5% reduction by 2020 in municipal waste generation per unit of GDP relative to 2010 levels—the 2023 data indicate a 14.5% reduction compared to 2010. This confirms that the target has been successfully achieved (Figure 2).
From 2013 to 2019, municipal waste generation increased at a considerably slower pace than socio-economic indicators. A different pattern emerged in 2020, when municipal waste generation declined moderately compared to GDP and household consumption trends (Figure 1).
An analysis of the full historical time series (2002–2023) reveals a downward trend for both ratios: municipal waste generation per unit of GDP decreased by 7.6%, and waste generation per unit of household consumption fell by 4.6% (Figure 2).
Dati
Figure 1: Trend of municipal waste generation and main socio-economic indicators
ISPRA elaboration based on ISPRA and Istat data
Figure 2: Trend of municipal waste generation per unit of GDP and per unit of household expenditure
ISPRA elaboration based on ISPRA and Istat data
The partially irregular trend in municipal waste generation observed over the years can be linked to various, often interrelated, factors. Among these are the introduction of new legislative measures that have, for example, modified definitions or accounting methodologies for waste collection and management, as well as public health or socio-economic dynamics—such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the international crisis in 2022—which have had significant impacts on consumption patterns and, consequently, on waste generation.
Although the 2023 figure shows a slight increase compared to 2022, it appears to reflect the broader long-term downward trend observed since 2012, with total municipal waste generation consistently ranging between 29 and 30 million tonnes (Figure 1).
From a regulatory standpoint, the data may also be affected by the amendment introduced through Legislative Decree No. 116/2020, which added Article 198, paragraph 2-bis, to Legislative Decree No. 152/2006. This provision allows non-household users to opt out of the public waste collection service, provided they can demonstrate that their municipal waste is delivered to operators who ensure its recovery. Waste falling under this category may therefore no longer be fully accounted for within the municipal waste production and separate collection statistics, as was the case in previous years, but rather be classified under the management scope of special waste.
Examining in greater detail the trend in municipal waste generation relative to household consumption, the ratio of annual values for the two indicators remained essentially constant between 2013 and 2014, reflecting similar dynamics. In 2015, a divergence emerged, with a reduction in waste generation and an increase in household consumption, resulting in a decrease in the ratio. In 2016, both indicators increased, though the rise in waste generation was slightly more pronounced. In 2017, household consumption grew while municipal waste generation declined, leading to a further drop in the ratio. In 2018, both indicators rose again, with a steeper increase in waste production, which in turn caused the ratio to rise. In 2019, a slight decrease in waste generation accompanied by continued growth in consumption caused the ratio to decline. The year 2020 saw a significant increase in the ratio, due to the concurrent drop in both indicators, which was more pronounced for household spending. In 2021, both municipal waste and consumption increased, but the stronger rise in consumption drove the ratio downward. This downward trend in the ratio continued in 2022, as household expenditure rose while waste generation fell. Finally, in 2023, both indicators increased, but the more substantial growth in consumption led to a further decrease in the ratio (Figure 2).