Panel 1
Antonella Bernetti
The indicator allows the evaluation of the trend of specific carbon dioxide emissions of the circulating car fleet through the comparison between the values resulting from type-approval procedures and the values deriving from the actual use of vehicles on the road. It is also useful for the monitoring of carbon dioxide emissions of the circulating car fleet in relation to compliance with the voluntary agreements between the European Commission and the automotive industry. Since 2001, the year in which the Civil Motorization began to monitor the specific emissions of the newly registered fleet, these emissions have been decreasing and are in any case significantly lower than the estimates of real on-road emissions, showing a gap between type-approval data and real-world data.
By “specific CO₂ emissions” is meant the CO₂ emissions of a passenger car measured during the vehicle type-approval cycle in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 715/2007 and indicated as the mass of CO₂ emissions per kilometre travelled.
By “average specific CO₂ emissions” of a car manufacturer is meant the average of the specific CO₂ emissions of all new passenger cars it produces in a given year.
Since the carbon content of the fuels used cannot be changed, the indicator refers mainly to the average energy efficiency of the vehicle, determined by the technical efficiency of the engine-vehicle system.
By “average on-road specific emissions” is meant the emissions of the circulating fleet on the road in Italy. These emissions are determined by the energy efficiency of the engine-vehicle system and by the fuels used by the circulating fleet (number and type of vehicles), by the use of the vehicles (occupancy rates and load factors), and by driving characteristics (speed and driving style).
To monitor the trend of carbon dioxide emission factors of the circulating passenger car fleet, with respect to the different vehicle fuel types, based on the comparison between type-approval data and the estimates of actual on-road performance.
The CO₂ emission reduction targets for passenger cars by 2015 (Regulation (EC) No 443/2009) and for vans by 2017 (Regulation (EU) No 510/2011) were already achieved in 2013. On 17 April 2019, the European Parliament and the Council adopted Regulation (EU) 2019/631, which sets new CO₂ emission standards for cars and vans: starting from 1 January 2020, a target is established for the entire EU vehicle fleet of 95 g CO₂/km for the average emissions of new passenger cars and 147 g CO₂/km for the average emissions of new light commercial vehicles registered in the Union.
These targets refer to the NEDC (“New European Driving Cycle”) emission test procedure; starting from 2021, the emission targets for manufacturers are based on the new WLTP (“Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure”). The target for new passenger cars for the years 2020–2024 is equivalent to 115.1 g CO₂/km when expressed according to the WLTP.
Regulation (EU) 2019/1242, which sets CO₂ emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles, entered into force on 14 August 2019 (the specific CO₂ emissions of the fleet of new heavy-duty vehicles in the Union must be reduced by 15% from 2025 and by 30% from 2030, compared to reference CO₂ emission values, based on monitoring data reported under Regulation (EU) 2018/956).
With regard to average emissions for new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles, Regulation (EU) 2019/631 set further reduction targets from 2021: –15% by 2025 (for both passenger cars and vans) and –37.5% for passenger cars and –31% for vans by 2030.
Finally, the Fit for 55 package proposes even more ambitious CO₂ reduction targets for 2030 (–55% for passenger cars and –50% for vans) and 2035 (–100% for both passenger cars and vans), compared to 2021 levels.
Regulation (EU) 2019/631 requires countries (EU Member States, Iceland, and Norway) to record information relating to each new passenger car registered in their territory; every year, each country must report to the Commission all information concerning new registrations.
As for consumer information, Directive 1999/94/EC, transposed in Italy by Presidential Decree 84/2003, requires each Member State to publish annually a guide on fuel economy and CO₂ emissions of passenger cars.
Panel 2
ISPRA, Informative Inventory Report 2025, https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/inventario-nazionale/
ISPRA, Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2022, National Inventory Report 2024, Rapporti 398/2024, https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NIR2024-Rapporto-398-2024.pdf
Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, Data on CO₂ Emissions from Passenger Car Type-Approval for the Years 2001–2009 https://www.mit.gov.it/
Historical data series for the comparison between type-approval data and data related to the real-world use of vehicles on the road are not available for all vehicle categories; the present indicator refers only to road transport by passenger cars.
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Data quality assessment
The carbon dioxide emission factors for road vehicles are sourced from ISPRA (https://fetransp.isprambiente.it/#/).
The emission factors related to the type-approval cycle are based on data processed from the following sources: EEA (https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/datahub/datahubitem-view/fa8b1229-3db6-495d-b18e-9c9b3267c02b, years 2010–2022), ACEA (https://www.acea.auto/figure/average-co2-emissions-from-new-passenger-cars-by-eu-country/, years 2021, 2022), and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport (years 2001, 2005, 2009).
National
1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010-2022
Indicator assessment
Two types of indicators are calculated: the average emissions of newly registered vehicles and the average on-road emissions of the circulating car fleet in Italy, disaggregated by fuel type.
The first indicator refers to emissions recorded during the European type-approval test for vehicles; this test, identical for all cars, measures the emissions of the engine–vehicle system separately by fuel type, allowing for the monitoring of ongoing technological developments.
The second indicator refers to the actual use of vehicles, including all traffic conditions (urban, rural, and motorway) and various driving styles. These estimates are derived from the European COPERT model for each vehicle category and are based on tests conducted under real-world operating conditions.
The emission factors related to actual on-road use have been updated based on data from the National Inventory of Emissions reported in 2024.
The estimated average factors by category and fuel type reflect the average characteristics of the circulating fleet and therefore also the actual distribution by engine displacement.
The on-road CO₂ emission factors reported here, for consistency with the calculation of other emission factors and with the aim of representing the final amount emitted, have been calculated by considering total emissions and fuel consumption (including both fossil and bio shares), taking into account all the factors that influence emissions, such as air conditioning use, operation of SCR technology, and lubricant use.
A low evaluation is assigned to the current state due to the critical issues that still characterize the road vehicle fleet in Italy.
In 2022, the average CO₂ emission factor for new passenger cars in Italy (the average WLTP emission factor is 119.3 g CO₂/km) exceeds the European target value (115.1 g CO₂/km, calculated consistently with the WLTP test procedure).
Moreover, there are discrepancies (Figure 1) between the CO₂ emission values resulting from vehicle type-approval (Table 2) and the emission values derived from actual on-road vehicle use (Table 1, Figure 2).
In 2022, the national average emission factor, estimated for the actual on-road use of the entire passenger car fleet, expressed per vehicle-kilometre, was approximately 161.7 g CO₂/km (Table 1).
Table 3 and Figure 3, which refer to total mileage, highlight the critical issue related to the fuel-type composition of the current circulating fleet, in which traditional fuel types—particularly diesel and petrol—still prevail.
In the period 1990–2022, the specific carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars circulating in Italy have decreased thanks to fleet renewal and improvements in vehicle efficiency (Table 1, Table 3, Figure 3). Despite the improvements recorded over the years, the average Italian emission value in 2022 remains above the European target value and still far from the ambitious targets set at the European level for 2030 and 2035. Given the critical issues identified in the evolution of average CO₂ emission factors, a negative evaluation is therefore assigned to the trend.
Data
Table 1: Average CO₂ Emission Factors per Vehicle-Kilometre for Passenger Cars on the Road
ISPRA
The data are derived from the National Greenhouse Inventory reported under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The emission data from road transport have been estimated by ISPRA using the COPERT model.
Table 2: Average CO₂ Emission Factors per Vehicle-Kilometre for the Newly Registered Italian Passenger Car Fleet (Type-Approval Cycle)
SPRA elaboration based on EEA and MIT data.
Elaboration based on CO₂ emission data from type-approval procedures, sourced from EEA (data for 2010–2022) and MIT (2001, 2005, and 2009). The table reports average emission factors calculated for the fuel types specified. Up to 2020, the values refer to the NEDC (New European Driving Cycle); from 2021 onwards, the reference is the WLTP (Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure). Compared to the previous edition, the values have been updated from 2021 based on the final EEA data publication.
Table 3: Estimated Mileage of Passenger Cars Circulating in Italy by Fuel Type
Processed by ISPRA
The historical mileage series reported forms the basis for the road transport emission estimates of the National Inventory officially submitted by ISPRA in 2024
Figure 1: Trend of average CO₂ emission factors per vehicle-kilometre for passenger cars
Data processed by ISPRA
The road emission factors are based on the ISPRA National Emission Inventory. The test values are derived from ISPRA elaboration of data from EEA and ACEA. Up to 2020, the reference test procedure is NEDC; from 2021 onwards, the reference is the WLTP test procedure.
Figure 2: Comparison of average on-road CO₂ emission factors per vehicle-kilometre for passenger cars in 2022
ISPRA
The on-road emission factors, calculated here based on actual mileage, are derived from the ISPRA National Emission Inventory, reported in 2024.
Figure 3: The evolution of passenger car mileage in Italy
ISPRA
The historical mileage (vehicle-kilometre) time series serves as the foundation for the road transport emission estimates in the National Inventory officially reported by ISPRA in 2024.
Carbon dioxide emissions are closely linked to energy consumption. The average emission factors estimated with reference to on-road vehicle use take into account the actual characteristics of the national circulating fleet. Electricity produces no carbon dioxide emissions at the time of use but, if generated from fossil sources, the specific emissions related to production must be considered. In addition to fuel substitution, improvements in transport energy efficiency also reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
It should be noted that the emission factors reported in Table 1 and Figure 2 refer to on-road consumption and the total circulating fleet for each fuel type, from which detailed information on average engine displacement and Euro emission standards cannot be inferred.
The historical series reported in Table 1 has been updated over the years consistently with the updates of the National Emissions Inventory and the revisions made to the COPERT estimation model. Since 2001, the year in which the Motor Vehicle Registry began monitoring the specific emissions of the newly registered fleet, these emissions have decreased (Table 2); in this case, reference is made to consumption recorded during vehicle type-approval tests.
This result was also achieved through the spread of alternative fuel vehicles and small engine displacements.
The trend observed over the years has allowed the country to exceed the European targets set for 2015, but in 2022 the average Italian emission value remains above the European target and still far from the ambitious targets set at the European level for 2030 and 2035.
Furthermore, the discrepancy between the values resulting from type-approval tests and those related to actual on-road vehicle use must be taken into account (Figure 1).
The current situation, despite improvements over time, is still characterized by the predominance of traditional fuel types, particularly diesel and petrol.
The data reported in tables and figures are not all directly comparable as they refer to different vehicle uses; in particular, the estimates in Table 1, Figure 2, Table 3, and Figure 3 refer to actual on-road vehicle use, while Table 2 considers emissions recorded during the standardized driving cycle in vehicle type-approval tests.
Starting from 2021, the WLTP test procedure completely replaces the NEDC for CO₂ emission standards.