SPECIFIC CO₂ EMISSIONS

    Descrizione 1
    Update date
    Authors

    Antonella Bernetti

    Abstract
    Immagine
    Abstract

    The indicator allows the evaluation of the trend of specific carbon dioxide emissions of the circulating car fleet through the comparison between the values resulting from type-approval procedures and the values deriving from the actual use of vehicles on the road. It is also useful for the monitoring of carbon dioxide emissions of the circulating car fleet in relation to compliance with the voluntary agreements between the European Commission and the automotive industry. Since 2001, the year in which the Civil Motorization began to monitor the specific emissions of the newly registered fleet, these emissions have been decreasing and are in any case significantly lower than the estimates of real on-road emissions, showing a gap between type-approval data and real-world data.

    Description

    By “specific CO₂ emissions” is meant the CO₂ emissions of a passenger car measured during the vehicle type-approval cycle in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 715/2007 and indicated as the mass of CO₂ emissions per kilometre travelled.
    By “average specific CO₂ emissions” of a car manufacturer is meant the average of the specific CO₂ emissions of all new passenger cars it produces in a given year.
    Since the carbon content of the fuels used cannot be changed, the indicator refers mainly to the average energy efficiency of the vehicle, determined by the technical efficiency of the engine-vehicle system.
    By “average on-road specific emissions” is meant the emissions of the circulating fleet on the road in Italy. These emissions are determined by the energy efficiency of the engine-vehicle system and by the fuels used by the circulating fleet (number and type of vehicles), by the use of the vehicles (occupancy rates and load factors), and by driving characteristics (speed and driving style).

    Purpose

    To monitor the trend of carbon dioxide emission factors of the circulating passenger car fleet, with respect to the different vehicle fuel types, based on the comparison between type-approval data and the estimates of actual on-road performance.

    Policy relevance and utility for users
    It is of national scope or it is applicable to environmental issues at the regional level but of national relevance.
    It can describe the trend without necessarily evaluating it.
    It is simple and easy to interpret.
    It is sensitive to changes occurring in the environment and/or in human activities
    It provides a basis for international comparisons.
    Ha una soglia o un valore di riferimento con cui può essere confrontato
    Analytical soundness
    Be based on international standards and international consensus about its validity;
    Be theoretically well founded in technical and scientific terms
    Presents reliability and validity of measurement and data collection methods
    Temporal comparability
    Spatial comparability
    Measurability (data)
    Adequately documented and of known quality
    Updated at regular intervals in accordance with reliable procedures
    Readily available or made available at a reasonable cost/benefit ratio
    An “adequate” spatial coverage
    An “appropriate” temporal coverage
    Main regulatory references and objectives

    The CO₂ emission reduction targets for passenger cars by 2015 (Regulation (EC) No 443/2009) and for vans by 2017 (Regulation (EU) No 510/2011) were already achieved in 2013. On 17 April 2019, the European Parliament and the Council adopted Regulation (EU) 2019/631, which sets new CO₂ emission standards for cars and vans: starting from 1 January 2020, a target is established for the entire EU vehicle fleet of 95 g CO₂/km for the average emissions of new passenger cars and 147 g CO₂/km for the average emissions of new light commercial vehicles registered in the Union.

    These targets refer to the NEDC (“New European Driving Cycle”) emission test procedure; starting from 2021, the emission targets for manufacturers are based on the new WLTP (“Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure”). The target for new passenger cars for the years 2020–2024 is equivalent to 115.1 g CO₂/km when expressed according to the WLTP.

    Regulation (EU) 2019/1242, which sets CO₂ emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles, entered into force on 14 August 2019 (the specific CO₂ emissions of the fleet of new heavy-duty vehicles in the Union must be reduced by 15% from 2025 and by 30% from 2030, compared to reference CO₂ emission values, based on monitoring data reported under Regulation (EU) 2018/956).

    With regard to average emissions for new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles, Regulation (EU) 2019/631 set further reduction targets from 2021: –15% by 2025 (for both passenger cars and vans) and –37.5% for passenger cars and –31% for vans by 2030.

    Finally, the Fit for 55 package proposes even more ambitious CO₂ reduction targets for 2030 (–55% for passenger cars and –50% for vans) and 2035 (–100% for both passenger cars and vans), compared to 2021 levels.

    Regulation (EU) 2019/631 requires countries (EU Member States, Iceland, and Norway) to record information relating to each new passenger car registered in their territory; every year, each country must report to the Commission all information concerning new registrations.

    As for consumer information, Directive 1999/94/EC, transposed in Italy by Presidential Decree 84/2003, requires each Member State to publish annually a guide on fuel economy and CO₂ emissions of passenger cars.

    DPSIR
    Pressure
    Indicator type
    Descriptive (A)
    Policy effectiveness (D)
    References

    ISPRA, Informative Inventory Report 2025, https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/inventario-nazionale/
    ISPRA, Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2022, National Inventory Report 2024, Rapporti 398/2024, https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NIR2024-Rapporto-398-2024.pdf
    Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, Data on CO₂ Emissions from Passenger Car Type-Approval for the Years 2001–2009  https://www.mit.gov.it/

    Limitations

    Historical data series for the comparison between type-approval data and data related to the real-world use of vehicles on the road are not available for all vehicle categories; the present indicator refers only to road transport by passenger cars.

    Further actions

    -

    Frequenza di rilevazione dei dati
    Annuale
    Fonte dei dati
    EEA (European Environmental Agency)
    ISPRA
    MIT (Ministero delle Infrastruttura e dei Trasporti)
    Data availabilty

    The carbon dioxide emission factors for road vehicles are sourced from ISPRA (https://fetransp.isprambiente.it/#/).
    The emission factors related to the type-approval cycle are based on data processed from the following sources: EEA (https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/datahub/datahubitem-view/fa8b1229-3db6-495d-b18e-9c9b3267c02b, years 2010–2022), ACEA (https://www.acea.auto/figure/average-co2-emissions-from-new-passenger-cars-by-eu-country/, years 2021, 2022), and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport (years 2001, 2005, 2009).

    Spatial coverage

    National

    Time coverage

    1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010-2022

    Processing methodology

    Two types of indicators are calculated: the average emissions of newly registered vehicles and the average on-road emissions of the circulating car fleet in Italy, disaggregated by fuel type.
    The first indicator refers to emissions recorded during the European type-approval test for vehicles; this test, identical for all cars, measures the emissions of the engine–vehicle system separately by fuel type, allowing for the monitoring of ongoing technological developments.
    The second indicator refers to the actual use of vehicles, including all traffic conditions (urban, rural, and motorway) and various driving styles. These estimates are derived from the European COPERT model for each vehicle category and are based on tests conducted under real-world operating conditions.
    The emission factors related to actual on-road use have been updated based on data from the National Inventory of Emissions reported in 2024.
    The estimated average factors by category and fuel type reflect the average characteristics of the circulating fleet and therefore also the actual distribution by engine displacement.
    The on-road CO₂ emission factors reported here, for consistency with the calculation of other emission factors and with the aim of representing the final amount emitted, have been calculated by considering total emissions and fuel consumption (including both fossil and bio shares), taking into account all the factors that influence emissions, such as air conditioning use, operation of SCR technology, and lubricant use.

    Update frequency
    Year
    Qualità dell'informazione

    The calculation of the indicator requires the application of complex algorithms derived from a scientific methodology consolidated at the international level. The estimates produced, based on specific national data, represent average values updated annually and thus capable of reflecting the evolution of the phenomenon over time.

    State
    Poor
    Trend
    Negative
    State assessment/description

    A low evaluation is assigned to the current state due to the critical issues that still characterize the road vehicle fleet in Italy.
    In 2022, the average CO₂ emission factor for new passenger cars in Italy (the average WLTP emission factor is 119.3 g CO₂/km) exceeds the European target value (115.1 g CO₂/km, calculated consistently with the WLTP test procedure).
    Moreover, there are discrepancies (Figure 1) between the CO₂ emission values resulting from vehicle type-approval (Table 2) and the emission values derived from actual on-road vehicle use (Table 1, Figure 2).
    In 2022, the national average emission factor, estimated for the actual on-road use of the entire passenger car fleet, expressed per vehicle-kilometre, was approximately 161.7 g CO₂/km (Table 1).
    Table 3 and Figure 3, which refer to total mileage, highlight the critical issue related to the fuel-type composition of the current circulating fleet, in which traditional fuel types—particularly diesel and petrol—still prevail.

    Trend assessment/description

    In the period 1990–2022, the specific carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars circulating in Italy have decreased thanks to fleet renewal and improvements in vehicle efficiency (Table 1, Table 3, Figure 3). Despite the improvements recorded over the years, the average Italian emission value in 2022 remains above the European target value and still far from the ambitious targets set at the European level for 2030 and 2035. Given the critical issues identified in the evolution of average CO₂ emission factors, a negative evaluation is therefore assigned to the trend.

    Comments

    Carbon dioxide emissions are closely linked to energy consumption. The average emission factors estimated with reference to on-road vehicle use take into account the actual characteristics of the national circulating fleet. Electricity produces no carbon dioxide emissions at the time of use but, if generated from fossil sources, the specific emissions related to production must be considered. In addition to fuel substitution, improvements in transport energy efficiency also reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

    It should be noted that the emission factors reported in Table 1 and Figure 2 refer to on-road consumption and the total circulating fleet for each fuel type, from which detailed information on average engine displacement and Euro emission standards cannot be inferred.
    The historical series reported in Table 1 has been updated over the years consistently with the updates of the National Emissions Inventory and the revisions made to the COPERT estimation model. Since 2001, the year in which the Motor Vehicle Registry began monitoring the specific emissions of the newly registered fleet, these emissions have decreased (Table 2); in this case, reference is made to consumption recorded during vehicle type-approval tests.
    This result was also achieved through the spread of alternative fuel vehicles and small engine displacements.
    The trend observed over the years has allowed the country to exceed the European targets set for 2015, but in 2022 the average Italian emission value remains above the European target and still far from the ambitious targets set at the European level for 2030 and 2035.
    Furthermore, the discrepancy between the values resulting from type-approval tests and those related to actual on-road vehicle use must be taken into account (Figure 1).
    The current situation, despite improvements over time, is still characterized by the predominance of traditional fuel types, particularly diesel and petrol.
    The data reported in tables and figures are not all directly comparable as they refer to different vehicle uses; in particular, the estimates in Table 1, Figure 2, Table 3, and Figure 3 refer to actual on-road vehicle use, while Table 2 considers emissions recorded during the standardized driving cycle in vehicle type-approval tests.
    Starting from 2021, the WLTP test procedure completely replaces the NEDC for CO₂ emission standards.

    Data
    Headline

    Table 1: Average CO₂ Emission Factors per Vehicle-Kilometre for Passenger Cars on the Road

    Data source

    ISPRA

    Note

    The data are derived from the National Greenhouse  Inventory  reported under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The emission data from road transport have been estimated by ISPRA using the COPERT model.

    Headline

    Table 2: Average CO₂ Emission Factors per Vehicle-Kilometre for the Newly Registered Italian Passenger Car Fleet (Type-Approval Cycle)

    Data source

    SPRA elaboration based on EEA and MIT data.

    Note

    Elaboration based on CO₂ emission data from type-approval procedures, sourced from EEA (data for 2010–2022) and MIT (2001, 2005, and 2009). The table reports average emission factors calculated for the fuel types specified. Up to 2020, the values refer to the NEDC (New European Driving Cycle); from 2021 onwards, the reference is the WLTP (Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure). Compared to the previous edition, the values have been updated from 2021 based on the final EEA data publication.

    Headline

    Table 3: Estimated Mileage of Passenger Cars Circulating in Italy by Fuel Type

    Data source

    Processed by ISPRA

    Note

    The historical mileage series reported forms the basis for the road transport emission estimates of the National Inventory officially submitted by ISPRA in 2024

     
     
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    Headline

    Figure 1: Trend of average CO₂ emission factors per vehicle-kilometre for passenger cars

    Data source

    Data processed by ISPRA

    Note

    The road emission factors are based on the ISPRA National Emission Inventory. The test values are derived from ISPRA elaboration of data from EEA and ACEA. Up to 2020, the reference test procedure is NEDC; from 2021 onwards, the reference is the WLTP test procedure.

    Thumbnail
    Headline

    Figure 2: Comparison of average on-road CO₂ emission factors per vehicle-kilometre for passenger cars in 2022

    Data source

    ISPRA

    Note

    The on-road emission factors, calculated here based on actual mileage, are derived from the ISPRA National Emission Inventory, reported in 2024.

    Thumbnail
    Headline

    Figure 3: The evolution of passenger car mileage in Italy

    Data source

    ISPRA

    Note

    The historical mileage (vehicle-kilometre) time series serves as the foundation for the road transport emission estimates in the National Inventory officially reported by ISPRA in 2024.

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