Panel 1
Marina Colaiezzi
The indicator measures passenger transport demand (according to different modes) and compares its trend with that of economic growth and population. Transport demand is increasingly met by individual road transport (passenger cars and motorcycles), which, due to its growth and modal share (approximately 81% in 2023), remains dominant compared to other transport modes.
The indicator measures passenger transport demand, broken down by mode of transport, and its relative intensity with respect to population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
To assess passenger transport demand and relate its evolution to national economic growth and population trends; to compare the different modes of transport and their internal development dynamics, with the aim of achieving a more efficient modal split.
The need to make the transport system sustainable has been repeatedly emphasized at the EU level, particularly in the context of combating climate change (European Parliament, 2008; European Council, 2008). Key objectives for sustainable mobility include decoupling transport growth from economic growth and modal rebalancing.
In May 2018, with the third package of measures of the “Europe on the Move” initiative—aimed at clean, competitive, and connected mobility—the European Commission completed the process started with the “European Strategy for Low Emission Mobility” of 2016 and the previous packages of May and November 2017.
The acceleration of the transition towards sustainable and smart mobility, in view of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, is among the ambitious objectives set out in the 2019 European Green Deal, which includes a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transport by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, and in the 2020 Strategy for Sustainable and Smart Mobility.
On 29 July 2021, the European Climate Law (Regulation (EU) No. 1119 of 30 June 2021) entered into force, transforming the political commitment of the European Green Deal for EU climate neutrality by 2050 into a legally binding obligation and increasing the EU’s 2030 emissions reduction target from 40% to 55% compared to 1990 levels.
Moreover, the so-called “Fit for 55” package is currently under discussion, i.e., the set of legislative proposals necessary to achieve the -55% net target by 2030, intended to support the ecological transition process envisaged by the Green Deal and to define the appropriate trajectory for achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
In Italy, the General Mobility Plan Guidelines (MIT, 2007) identified modal integration as an essential condition for making the national transport system efficient.
The Decree of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport of 4 August 2017 defined the guidelines for drafting Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (PUMS), and with Director's Decree No. 417 of 21 December 2018 of the Directorate General for Climate and Energy, the Incentive Programme for Sustainable Urban Mobility (PrIMUS) was approved, aimed at financing sustainable mobility projects in municipalities with a population of not less than 50,000 inhabitants.
In terms of soft mobility, since 15 February 2018, the law for the development of cycling mobility has also been in force, providing for the creation of the national cycling network (Bicitalia).
Also within the framework of national legislation, the National Strategic Plan for Sustainable Mobility is noteworthy, aimed at providing medium-term guidelines to regions and local authorities, in support of sectoral planning activities, and to public transport companies and the related industrial sector, in support of strategic choices concerning the various technological options.
The Plan was implemented with Interministerial Decree (MIT – MISE – MEF) No. 81 of 14 February 2020.
Finally, in February 2023, the decree-law for the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) was issued, allocating a significant share of resources to the green revolution, ecological transition, and infrastructure for sustainable mobility[1]; and in June 2024, Italy submitted the update of the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) as provided for by Article 14 of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the Council.
[1] https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2023/02/24/23G00022/sg
Panel 2
National Account of Infrastructure and Sustainable Mobility 2022–2023
The calculation of the indicator requires the use of algorithms, and only part of the necessary data is currently available at the regional level. From 1991 to 1994, data on passengers per kilometer are not available for some transport modes.
A national and local-level estimate of vehicle mileage would be required.
Data quality assessment
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EUROSTAT (Statistical Office of the European Communities)
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ISPRA (Institute for Environmental Protection and Research)
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ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics)
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MIT (Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport)
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MIT Data for Total Domestic Passenger Traffic (National Account of Infrastructure and Sustainable Mobility 2022-2023);
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ISTAT Data for Population (http://demo.istat.it/);
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Eurostat Database (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database) and AMECO (https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/indicators-statistics/economic-databases/macro-economic-database-ameco/ameco-database_en) for GDP data
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ISPRA Atmospheric Emissions Inventory for vkm data (https://emissioni.sina.isprambiente.it/serie-storiche-emissioni/).
National
1990-2023
Indicator assessment
The data are obtained through simple mathematical computations. Estimates of the total vehicle mileage are derived from modeling processes provided by the ISPRA National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory section (European model Copert). The estimates consider total fuel consumption, the vehicle fleet, mileage estimates on highways, and periodic studies by trade associations or local authorities. Intensity estimates are derived from mileage estimates, ISTAT population estimates, and data extracted from the European Commission databases, Eurostat, and AMECO.
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Passenger-km: unit of measure for transport demand. The quantity is calculated as the sum of the products of the number of passengers transported and their respective distances traveled. Only the distance within the national territory of the reporting country should be considered.
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Intensity relative to population and GDP, for both pkm and vkm.
In 2023, it is estimated that domestic passenger transport amounts to approximately 881 billion passenger-kilometers (+11% compared to 2022). The demand is primarily met by individual road transport (cars and motorcycles), which, in terms of growth and modal share (around 81%), continues to dominate over other transport modes. In 2023, the modal share is more contained, though still significant, and has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels. Road transport exerts immense pressure on the road network and society as a whole, generating congestion, delays, and other negative externalities. Moreover, the expansion of its modal share has mitigated the progress made in reducing environmental impact and increasing transport safety, achieved through technological improvements or infrastructure interventions. Approximately 90% of passenger transport occurs by road, with the remaining share covered by trains and air navigation (7.2% and 2.5%, respectively) (Table 2).
From 2015 to 2019, the percentage composition by passenger transport mode remained fairly stable. In 2020, due to the effects of the pandemic, the share of individual transport increased, reaching the highest value ever recorded since 1990 (84%). In 2023, the modal share of private mobility stands at approximately 81%, in line with the values of 2017, with a slight increase compared to 2022 (0.8 percentage points). In general, almost all passenger transport modes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (Table 1).
This trend is not aligned with the development and promotion objectives of intermodal shift outlined in the latest national planning tools, which forecast a further increase in the share of mobility needs covered by public/shared transport.
Data
Table 1: Inland Passenger Traffic in Italy, by Mode of Transport
National Infrastructure and Transport Report – Years 2022-2023’ (CNIT 2022-2023) and ISPRA processing on ISTAT, EUROSTAT, and AMECO data
(1) The passenger movements considered are those carried out by national carriers with both origin and destination within Italian territory. For rail traffic, the share of international traffic carried out on national territory is also included.
(2) From 2011 to 2012, the comparison of annual data for the two groups of companies (large and small-medium) should take into account that the universe of these two groups may vary annually based on the volume of passenger traffic carried out by individual companies, according to the thresholds defined by EC Regulation No. 91/2003. From 2013 to 2015, the universes of the two company groups (large and small-medium) coincide. Since 2016, EU Regulation No. 2032/2016, which amended EC Regulation No. 91/2003, has introduced new traffic thresholds, meaning the two groups "Large Companies" and "Small and Medium Enterprises" are numerically different from previous years. EU Regulation No. 2032/2016 was consolidated into EU Regulation No. 643/2018.
Source: Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, Various Sources.
Estimated data are in italics. Sums may not match totals due to rounding.
Table 2: Percentage of Inland Passenger Traffic in Italy, by Mode of Transport
ISPRA processing on data from the National Infrastructure and Transport Report – Years 2022-2023’ (CNIT 2022-2023)
Table 3: Intensity of passenger vehicle travel (total and passenger cars only) relative to income and population
ISPRA processing based on data from ACI, ISTAT, EUROSTAT, and MIT
The historical series of travel distances has been recalculated in accordance with the update of the ISPRA National Emission Inventory.
Figure 1: Evolution of total inland passenger traffic, by transport mode
Source: National Infrastructure and Transport Report – Years 2022-2023’ (CNIT 2022-2023) and ISPRA processing based on data from ISTAT, EUROSTAT, and AMECO
(1) The movements of passengers made by national carriers with origin and destination within Italy are considered. For rail traffic, the share of international traffic carried out within the national territory is also included.
(2) From 2011 to 2012, the comparison of annual data for the two groups of companies (large and small-medium) must take into account that the universe of these two groups may vary from year to year based on the passenger traffic volume carried out by individual companies, according to the thresholds set by Regulation EC No. 91/2003. From 2013 to 2015, the universes of the two groups of companies (large and small-medium) are the same. From 2016, Regulation EU No. 2032/2016, which amended Regulation EC No. 91/2003, introduced new traffic thresholds, making the two groups "Large Enterprises" and "Small and Medium Enterprises" numerically different from previous years. Regulation EU No. 2032/2016 was merged into Regulation EU No. 643/2018.
Source: Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, Various sources.
Figure 2: Evolution of passenger transport intensity
ISPRA processing based on data from ACI, ISTAT, EUROSTAT, and MIT
In the past three decades, there has been significant growth in passenger transport demand, only slowed down by the economic crisis between 2008 and 2012. In 2019, compared to 1990, the total domestic passenger traffic was approximately 33% higher (Table 1). In 2020, however, due to the restrictive measures introduced at the national and international levels to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, the historical series recorded its lowest value, 19% lower than in 1990 and 39% lower than in 2019. Air transport was one of the sectors most affected by the crisis triggered by the health emergency, along with rail transport, with decreases of 73% and 61%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
In 2023, approximately 90% of passenger transport occurs by road, with the remaining share covered by trains and air navigation, 7.2% and 2.5%, respectively (Table 2). Road transport demand is predominantly met by individual transport (cars and motorcycles) rather than public transport. The gradual introduction of more efficient cars has helped prevent the growing demand for mobility from translating into an increase in emissions in recent years.
The evolution of passenger transport intensity, measured as passenger-kilometers per population (Table 1), follows the trend of pkm, with a peak around 2007. Significant reductions are observed in 2011-2012, followed by an increase between 2013 and 2016, reaching the 2009 value in 2017, which remained almost constant until 2019. In 2023, after the drastic reduction during the pandemic years, the levels of 2015-2016 are restored but not those of 2019.
The trend in passenger transport intensity per unit of income is also discontinuous and influenced by variations in income measurement, expressed in constant 2015 euros, and by the estimate of the average vehicle occupancy factor. Peak values were reached in 2007, 2009, and 2017, with a minimum in 2020 corresponding to the negative GDP drop of -9% compared to the previous year. In 2023, there was a 10% increase compared to the previous year, corresponding to a GDP increase of about 1%.
Transport intensity, measured as total vehicle-kilometers per population (Table 3), increased from 1990 until 2002, anticipating the decline due to the crisis in comparison to the intensity expressed in pkm per capita, and then increased until 2019, although not reaching the levels of the early 2000s. In 2022, after the reduction in 2020, levels return to those of the pre-pandemic crisis years. The trend of intensity measured as total vehicle-kilometers per income from 1995 to 2012 shows two negative declines corresponding to the economic crises of 2005-2007 and 2010-2012, followed by a subsequent recovery in total passenger movements between 2013 and 2019. By 2022, the negative decline recorded in 2020 was recovered, but the levels of 2019 have not been reached.