Descrizione 1
Nicolò G. Tria
The Industrial Production Index (IPI) describes the trend of industrial activity (in the strict sense) in Italy through the monthly survey of actual production volumes. The level of industrial production is a key factor closely related to environmental pressures. After diverging during the 2010–2013 period, industrial production trends in Italy have aligned with those of the main European industrial countries and the euro area average (while remaining higher). In 2020, the index hit the historical minimum (93.3) due to COVID-19 containment measures, which led to the closure or strong restriction of production activities. The industrial production rebound in 2021 (104.7) was stronger than in France and Germany but was outpaced by the euro area average. After stagnating between 2021 and 2022 (105.1), the index declined again in 2023 (102.5). The medium- to long-term trend remains positive: in 2023, the index gained 2.5 percentage points compared to the base year 2015. The “capital goods” group showed the highest year-over-year increase (15.5 percentage points), while mining activities experienced a sharp decline (-31.6 p.p.). Nearly all variability in industrial production over time is explained by changes in manufacturing activity volumes.
The overall Industrial Production Index, calculated by ISTAT, measures the change over time in the physical volume of output produced by industry (in the strict sense) and by the main industrial groupings. According to the ATECO 2007 classification (updated in 2022), industry in the strict sense includes sections 'B' (Mining and quarrying), 'C' (Manufacturing), 'D' (Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply), and 'E' (Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities).
The index is based on a monthly sample survey conducted directly with a longitudinal panel of around 5,400 industrial enterprises—mostly with over 20 employees—who report monthly production flows (approx. 9,500) for a representative basket of basic products (about 1,190), typically in physical quantities. The monthly volume of production of goods in the basket represents the broader set of productive activities in the Italian industrial sector.
The purpose is to provide a measurement of the evolution over time of economic activity in the industrial sector, expressed in terms of gross production. These descriptive and contextual data illustrate one of the anthropogenic (economic) drivers most closely correlated with environmental and health impacts.
Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 on European business statistics. Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 on short-term statistics and amendments. No specific targets are defined for this indicator.
Descrizione 2
ISTAT, 2024. Aprile 2024: Produzione industriale. Statistiche flash (10 novembre 2023).
ISTAT, 2023. Gli indici della produzione industriale: aggiornamento della base di calcolo e della base di riferimento. Nota informativa (20 marzo 2024).
ISTAT, 2023. Indagine mensile sulla produzione industriale. Sistema Informativo sulla Qualità dei Processi Statistici (SIQual)
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Qualificazione dati
- ISTAT Database http://dati.istat.it/:
- Industria e Costruzioni/
- Produzione/
- Indice della produzione industriale/
- Basi precedenti/
- Indice della produzione industriale – Mensili (base 2015)
- Dettaglio settori economici (Ateco4 cifre) - base 2015=100
- Basi precedenti/
- Indice della produzione industriale/
- Produzione/
2. EUROSTAT Database https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database:
- Detailed datasets/
- Industry, trade and services/
- Short-term business statistics/
- Industry/
- Production in industry/
- Production in industry – annual data
- Production in industry/
- Industry/
- Short-term business statistics/
- Industry, trade and services/
National
2010-2023
Qualificazione indicatore
The raw data are either presented as received or with minimal mathematical processing (e.g., annual percentage change). Annual indices are calculated as the arithmetic average of monthly indices.
Since January 2022, ISTAT has adopted a moving base (annual chain-linking) methodology, in line with major methodological guidelines, replacing the fixed base approach.
ISTAT calculates elementary indices using monthly production volume data reported by industries, applying the Laspeyres formula. An annually updated weighting structure reflects the sectoral distribution of industrial value added in the base year. These indices, initially calculated using a calculation base, are then adjusted to the reference base. Since 2023, the new ISTAT reference base is 2021. However, for consistency, this report uses 2015 as the base year.
In 2023, compared to the previous year, production fell especially for consumer durables (from 120.8 to 114.3), intermediate goods (from 102.6 to 97.1), energy (from 96.0 to 90.6), and electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (from 100.8 to 95.0) (Table 1 and Figure 1). Only capital goods increased (from 112.3 to 115.5).
At the European level, despite the decline, the Italian index remains above those of France (98.7, increasing) and Germany (93.9, decreasing), but below the euro area average (105.0, decreasing) (Table 2 and Figure 3).
After two years of post-pandemic growth, industrial production volumes returned to levels similar to 2016 (Table 1 and Figure 1).
Between 2015 (base year = 100) and 2023, Italy’s overall industrial production volume increased by 2.5 p.p. Among major groupings, capital goods showed the highest growth (+15.5 p.p.), followed by consumer durables (+14.3 p.p.). The “Energy” index did not reflect the sector's underlying trend and dropped by 9.4 p.p. during the period. Almost all variability in industrial production is tied to manufacturing activity volume, whose curve almost perfectly overlaps with the general index for the industrial sector (Figure 2). In contrast, the mining industry is entirely disconnected from the main trend and shows a clear, steady decline, dropping 31.6 p.p. between 2015 and 2022.
Before 2015, production levels in Italy, France, Germany, and the euro area were not aligned: Italy’s volumes were several percentage points higher (Table 2 and Figure 3). Later, until the 2020 crash (from 105.4 to 93.3), the series converged with moderate gaps (Italy still above the euro average). In the two years following the pandemic crisis, Italy’s industry fully rebounded, aligning again with the euro area; France and Germany partially recovered but remained several points below both the euro average and the 2015 level, with trends diverging again.
Dati
Table 1: Indexes of industrial production, overall and by major industry groupings and ATECO sections (Base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Indices adjusted for calendar effects |
Table 2: Indexes of industrial production, Italy, France, Germany and the euro area (base 2015=100)
| EUROSTAT |
| Annual figures are adjusted for the number of working days (calendar effect); from 2023 euro area countries increase from 19 to 20. Value 2023, euro area Eurostat estimate. |
Table 3: Index of industrial production, manufacturing industry and its selected subsections (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Data adjusted for calendar effects. Annual value of the index given by the simple arithmetic mean of monthly values. |
Figure 1: Indexes of industrial production, general and major industire groupings, 2012-2023 (Base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Indices adjusted for calendar effects |
Figure 2: Indexes of industrial production, general and sections, 2012-2023 (Base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Indices adjusted for calendar effects |
Figure 3: Industrial production indices, Italy, France, Germany and the euro area, 2010-2023 (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration on EUROSTAT data |
| Annual figures are adjusted for the number of working days (calendar effect); from 2023 euro area countries increase from 19 to 20. Value 2023, euro area Eurostat estimate. |
Figure 4: Index of industrial production, narrow industry and paper and paper products, 2013-2023 (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Data adjusted for calendar effects |
Figure 5: Index of industrial production, narrow industry and chemicals, 2013-2023 (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Data adjusted for calendar effects |
Figure 6: Index of industrial production, narrow industry and non-metallic mineral products, 2013-2023 (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Data adjusted for calendar effects |
Figure 7: Index of industrial production, narrow industry and products of metallurgy, 2013-2023 (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Data adjusted for calendar effects |
Figure 8: Index of industrial production, narrow industry and metal products, excluding machinery and equipment, 2013-2023 (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Data adjusted for calendar effects |
Figure 9: Index of industrial production, manufacturing activities and its selected divisions, 2013-2023 (base 2015=100)
| ISPRA elaboration based on ISTAT data |
| Data adjusted for calendar effects |
A comparison is proposed between the trend of the overall manufacturing production index and that of specific industrial-manufacturing sub-sectors whose specific and CO₂ emissions are monitored via dedicated environmental indicators. The ATECO 2007 economic divisions examined include: “17: Paper and paper products”; “20: Chemicals and chemical products”; “23: Other non-metallic mineral products”; “24: Basic metals”; “25: Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment”. The analysis covers the period 2013–2023, using 2015 as the base year (100). The time frequency is monthly for pairwise comparisons (Figures 4–8) and yearly for the multiple-sector comparison (Figure 9). In all cases, the cyclical pattern of industrial sectors is evident, with local minima in August and December and peaks in March and July each year. The paper and chemical industries proved more resilient to the COVID-19 shock (see April 2020) compared to the broader sector trend. In 2023, all selected divisions recorded lower production volumes compared to the previous year, some significantly so: “Other non-metallic mineral products” from 107.5 to 95.7; “Paper and paper products” from 99.6 to 89.9; “Chemicals” from 101.4 to 94.7. All these sectors also declined from 2015 to 2023, in contrast with the positive overall trend in manufacturing (+4.0 p.p.). The steepest drop was for “Paper and paper products” (-10.2 p.p.), followed by “Basic metals” (-6.6 p.p.) and “Chemicals” (-5.3 p.p.).