Emanuele Peschi
The indicator represents the projections of national greenhouse gas emissions up to 2055, considering the scenario based on current policies as of 12/31/2022, therefore including those of the PNRR and the scenario with the additional policies and measures defined by the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). The scenario was calculated starting from the latest consolidated historical data relating to 2024, as well as from the expected evolution of the main macroeconomic drivers according to the indications provided to the European Commission. The information available for 2025, as well as the data relating to the first months of 2026, were also taken into consideration. The expected reductions in total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF) estimated for 2030, compared to 1990, in the scenario with current policies and in the scenario with additional policies are equal to -44% and -55% respectively.
The indicator describes the scenarios developed by ISPRA and officially communicated to the European Commission in March 2026 and which constitute an update of those contained in the PNIEC of June 2024, pursuant to Regulation (EU) 1999/2018 on the governance of the Energy Union and climate action. Further updates have been introduced following the conclusion of the review process pursuant to Article 38, paragraph 1 bis, of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999, Article 4, paragraph 4, of Regulation (EU) 2018/841 and Article 4, paragraph 3, of Regulation (EU) 2018/842.
Assess the projected trend of national greenhouse gas emissions, with reference to the objectives defined within the policies of the European Union and the Framework Convention on Climate Change.
In 1994, Italy ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), created as part of the "Rio Earth Summit" in 1992. The Convention aims to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a planetary level at such a level that human activities cannot modify the climate system. The Kyoto Protocol signed in 1997, in force since 2005, constitutes the implementing instrument of the Convention. Italy had a commitment to reduce overall national greenhouse gas emissions by 6.5% compared to 1990, within the period 2008-2012. The Protocol itself envisaged a reduction objective of 5.2% overall for industrialized countries, while for European Union countries an overall reduction in emissions of 8%. In Italy, the monitoring of climate-changing gas emissions is guaranteed by ISPRA, through Legislative Decree no. 51 of 7 March 2008 and Legislative Decree no. 30 of 13 March 2013 which provide for the establishment of the National System relating to the inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. Subsequently, law 3 May 2016, n. 79 of ratification of the Doha amendment to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change established the National System on policies and measures and projections for which ISPRA is responsible.
The European Union and its Member States, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol and subsequently under the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol of 2012 and the Paris Agreement of 2015, had initially agreed to reduce their collective emissions by 40% by 2030, compared to 1990. In December 2020, the Union's binding climate target for 2030 was updated and now consists of a net domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (emissions net of removals) of at least 55% compared to 1990 levels by 2030.
At individual country level, maximum limits are established only for emissions that fall within the scope of application of Regulation (EU) 2018/842, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/857, i. e. Those produced by Transport, Buildings, Agriculture, Industry not subject to the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and Waste. For Italy the objective currently consists of a reduction of 43.7% compared to 2005 levels, net of the adjustments of the EEA (European Environmental Agency) to take into account Article 10, paragraph 1, letter c) (exemptions to the ETS in phase 4) and the adjustments referred to in Article 10, paragraph 2 of Regulation (EU) 2018/842.
ISPRA, various years. Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Report https://emissioni. sina. isprambiente. it/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NID_Italy_Rappello_428_2026. pdf
UNFCCC, Italy, First Biennial Transparency Report, November 2024
https://unfccc. int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CTF-NDC-2024-V1.2-20241120-141742_awaiting%20approval. xlsx
https://unfccc. int/sites/default/files/resource/National%20Inventory%20Document%202024%20-%20Italy. pdf
https://unfccc. int/sites/default/files/resource/ITA-CRT-2024-V1.0-20241115-162239_awaiting%20submission. zip
ISPRA (Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research)
National
1990-2055
Starting from the 1990 - 2024 time series of estimates of greenhouse gas emissions officially communicated by ISPRA within the framework of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) - see the indicator: "Greenhouse gas emissions: sectoral disaggregation" - the projections up to 2055 have been developed, in sectoral detail, considering the scenario with policies in force at 31/12/2022 and the scenario with the adoption of the policies additional established by the PNIEC.
Current policy projections of total net greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 show a 44% reduction if removals are included. In order to adequately contribute to achieving the net emissions reduction objective established for the entire European Union (-55% by 2030) (Table 1, Figure 1) it is therefore necessary to adopt additional policies.
Considering the scenario with current policies, the net greenhouse gas emissions estimated for 2030 are reduced by 44% compared to 1990. The emissions that fall within the scope of application of the "Effort sharing" regulation (EU) 2018/842 in 2030, according to the scenario with current policies and according to the scenario with additional policies, are reduced respectively by 31.3% and 41.5% compared to the levels of 2005, compared to an objective which is currently 43.7% (Figure 2). Even if the trend is positive in all scenarios as it is decreasing compared to previous years, the expected trend is not in line with the annual allocations of maximum emissions and does not allow the reduction objective of 43.7% to be achieved. This trend, even in the case of the scenario with additional policies, is therefore insufficient.
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Table 1: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions, by sector, in the current policy scenario Fonte
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Table 2: Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by sector under the PNIEC scenario Fonte
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Figure 1: Trend and projections of total greenhouse gas emissions (including LULUCF) Fonte
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Figure 2: Trend and projections of greenhouse gas emissions subject to the “Effort Sharing” Regulation Fonte
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Considering overall greenhouse gas emissions, the greatest reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 is estimated in the energy industry sector (power plants, refineries and coke ovens) in both the current policies and additional policies scenarios, equal to approximately -59% and -73% respectively. For this sector, the measures adopted so far, also within the PNRR, prove to be very relevant and in line with the achievement of the European objectives (Tables 1 and 2).
In the scenario with current policies, emissions related to energy uses (energy sector) decrease by approximately 36%, while non-energy emissions (industrial processes, agriculture and waste) by approximately 32% (Table 1). In the scenario with additional policies, energy emissions are further reduced to -49%, while for non-energy emissions the variation is limited and reaches -34% (Table 2).
The energy sectors are affected on the one hand by the effects of the economic crisis that occurred in the years around 2010, and on the other by the policies adopted regarding renewable sources and energy efficiency. The most problematic sectors appear to be Transport and Civil, where the PNRR measures have very little impact in terms of reducing emissions (Table 1), while in the scenario with additional policies the expected reduction in these sectors grows considerably. In fact, transport goes from -9% to -30%, while for civil transport it goes from -13% to -27% (Table 2). Emissions from these sectors have taken on an increasingly decisive role in meeting reduction objectives (Effort sharing). If we want to respect these commitments imposed on Italy by EU legislation, it is among other things necessary to immediately adopt further very incisive policies for the rationalization of private transport, to reduce demand (Figure 2).