GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE ETS and ESR SECTORS

Update date
Authors

Antonio Caputo

* For the purpose of comparison with the 2020 targets, the historical emission series up to 2020 is reported without applying the recalculation and the updated Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) introduced from 2021 onward. ** The target levels from 2006 to 2012 are calculated as an interpolation between the years 2005 and 2013 and do not represent official national targets.
* For the purpose of comparison with the 2020 targets, the historical emission series up to 2020 is reported without applying the recalculation and the updated Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) introduced from 2021 onward. ** The target levels from 2006 to 2012 are calculated as an interpolation between the years 2005 and 2013 and do not represent official national targets.
Abstract

The indicator consists of the emission quotas generated by plants subject to the quota trading system (EU emissions trading, EU ETS), established with Directive 2003/87/EC, and the emissions of all sectors not covered by the ETS system, i. e. Small-medium industry, transport, civil, agriculture and waste, according to Decision 406/2009/EC (Effort Sharing Decision, ESD) until 2020 and according to the Effort Regulation Sharing (ESR 2018/842) from 2021. Emissions from non-ETS sectors in 2020 were below the required target of 37 MtCO2eq. In 2021 and 2022 ESR emissions are in line with what is required by the annual target, while from 2023 they are above the target, by 0.6 MtCO 2 eq in 2023 and 9.6 MtCO 2 eq in 2024.

Description

The indicator consists of the emission quotas up to 2020 generated by plants subject to the EU emissions trading system, established by Directive 2003/87/EC, and the emissions of all sectors not covered by the ETS system, i. e. Small-medium industry, transport, civil, agriculture and waste according to Decision 406/2009/EC (Effort Sharing Decision, ESD) up to 2020 and according to the Regulation Effort Sharing (ESR 2018/842) from 2021.

Purpose

Follow the trend of emissions from large industrial plants (ETS) and monitor the national target for emissions from sectors not covered by the ETS system, established according to Decision 406/2009/EC (Effort Sharing Decision, ESD) until 2020 and according to the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR 2018/842) from 2021.

Policy relevance and utility for users
It is of national scope or applicable to environmental issues at the regional level but of national significance.
It is able to describe the trend without necessarily providing an evaluation of it.
It is simple and easy to interpret.
It is sensitive to changes occurring in the environment and/or human activities
It provides a representative overview of environmental conditions, environmental pressures, and societal responses.
It provides a basis for international comparisons
It has a threshold or reference value against which it can be compared.
Analytical soundness
Be based on international standards and international consensus about its validity;
Be theoretically well founded in technical and scientific terms
Presents reliability and validity of measurement and data collection methods
Temporal comparability
Spatial comparability
Measurability (data)
Adequately documented and of known quality
Updated at regular intervals in accordance with reliable procedures
Readily available or made available at a reasonable cost/benefit ratio
An “adequate” spatial coverage
An “appropriate” temporal coverage
Main regulatory references and objectives

Directive 2009/29/EC amends Directive 2003/87/EC and has the aim of perfecting and extending the EU-ETS EU-ETS greenhouse gas emissions quota trading system, placing a single ceiling at EU level on emissions quotas starting from 2013. Emissions will be reduced annually by 1.74%, reducing the number of quotas available by 2020 by 21% with reference to the base year 2005. Furthermore, the directive includes new greenhouse gases and new economic activities in the ETS. Decision 406/2009/EC, concerning the efforts of member states to comply with community commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (Effort Sharing Decision, ESD), assigns Italy the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 13% by 2020 compared to 2005 emissions for all sectors not covered by the ETS system; It also provides that from 2013 to 2020 each State will have an annual target to respect.

Regulation 2017/2392 is also cited, which amends Directive 2003/87/EC, to maintain the current limits of the scope relating to aviation activities and introduce some provisions with a view to the implementation of a global market-based measure starting from 2021. Directive 2018/410/EC introduces further amendments to Directive 2003/87/EC to support a more cost-effective and promote low-carbon investments and Decision (EU) 2015/1814.

As part of the Green Deal, Europe has updated the strategic framework for the climate by setting the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by 55% compared to 1990, a share of at least 42.5% of renewable energy (provisional agreement in 2023 with the intention of aiming for 45%) and an improvement of at least 36% in energy efficiency, in terms of reduction of final energy consumption and of at least 39% in terms of reduction of primary energy consumption compared to the trend scenario (Primes 2007 Model). To achieve the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the ETS system was reformed and extended to the transport and civil sectors with Directive (EU) 2023/959. The sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) will have to reduce emissions at European level by 62% compared to 2005 (43% for road transport and buildings), while the non-ETS sectors will have to reduce emissions at European level by 40% compared to 2005. The latter objective has been translated into national binding targets for Member States with the adoption of the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR 2018/842). For Italy, a reduction in emissions from the ESR sectors is expected of 43.7% compared to 2005. The annual objective from 2021 to 2030 is represented by the emission quotas assigned to each country by Implementing Decision (EU) 2020/2126, from 2021 to 2030, for each year.

DPSIR
Pressure
Indicator type
Performance (B)
References

EEA, Trends and projections in Europe 2024. EEA Report No 11/2024

Data source

ISPRA (Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research)

Data collection frequency
Yearly
Data availabilty

National inventory of emissions into the atmosphere - https://emissioni. sina. isprambiente. it/avventura-nazionale

Spatial coverage

National

Time coverage

2005-2024

Core SET
7° Programma di azione per l’Ambiente Europeo (7° EAP) - Dati sull’ambiente
EEA - Set of Indicators
Processing methodology

For the calculation of the 2020 target for the ESD sectors (regulated by the Effort Sharing Decision), the 2005 greenhouse gas emissions were set starting from the emissions recorded in 2005 from the inventory published in 2011 (582.1 Mt CO 2 eq). CO emissions must be subtracted from this value 2 of civil aviation (2.2 Mt CO2), emissions from the ETS sectors (226 Mt CO2eq) and emissions from plants entered into the ETS system in the period 2008-2012 (5.9 Mt CO 2 eq). The objective of -13% for 2020 applies to the value obtained, with a linear reduction from 2013 for the annual objectives. The emissions calculated for 2005 for the purposes of assigning the objectives are equal to 348 Mt CO 2 eq. The calculation of the annual allocations from 2013 to 2020 also provides for the subtraction for each year of the contribution of the plants entered into the ETS system since 2013. The level of annual emissions from the ESD sectors is calculated by subtracting the emissions from the ETS sectors, the CO emissions from the total greenhouse gas emissions 2 from domestic aviation and NF3 emissions. From 2021, the level of annual emissions from the ESR sectors (regulated by the Effort Sharing Regulation) is calculated by subtracting the emissions from the ETS sectors, the CO emissions from the total greenhouse gas emissions 2 from domestic aviation.

Update frequency
Year
Data quality

The information relating to greenhouse gas emissions is relevant for compliance with the emission reduction objectives set by Decision 406/2009/EC (Effort Sharing Decision, ESD) until 2020 and by Regulation 2018/842 (Effort Sharing Regulation, ESR) from 2021. The estimates are calculated in accordance with the characteristics of transparency, accuracy, consistency, comparability, completeness required by the methodology defined by IPCC.

Status
Medium
Trend
Positive
State assessment/description

Emissions from the ETS sectors, for which there are no national objectives, in 2023 were 114.8 MtCO2eq (-15.8% compared to 2022), while emissions from the ESR sectors were 267.6 MtCO2eq (-2.4% compared to 2022). For the ESR sectors, emissions are not in line with what is required by the objective from 2021. Emissions are higher by 5.5 MtCO2eq in 2021, by 5.4 MtCO2eq in 2022 and by 8.2 MtCO2eq in 2023. (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Trend assessment/description

Emissions from the ETS sectors in 2023 show a reduction of 49.2% compared to 2005 levels. In the same period, emissions from the Effor sharing sectors decrease by 26.1% (Table 1, Figure 1). The trend in emissions is partly due to policies to reduce the impacts of industrial sectors and efficiency gains in the civil sector and partly to the economic crisis which has heavily affected some sectors responsible for high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, 2020 emissions were heavily influenced by the lockdown measures that stopped economic activities to contain the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, while in 2021 and 2022 there was a recovery, followed by a decrease in 2023.

Comments

The objectives set for the ESD sectors in 2020 were largely respected, while from 2021 there has been a significant exceeding of the emissions threshold established for the period 2021-2030 (Table 1, Figure 1). The indicator shows the national path towards a low-carbon economy. Overall, there has been a reduction in emissions since 2005, although the country must increase its effort to achieve the objectives set for the ESR sectors in the period 2021-2030.

Data
Data
Headline

Table 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from ETS and ESR Sectors

Data source

ISPRA

Data legend

* For the purpose of comparison with the 2020 targets, the historical emission series up to 2020 is reported without applying the recalculation and the updated Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) introduced from 2021 onward.

** The target levels from 2006 to 2012 are calculated as an interpolation between the years 2005 and 2013 and do not represent official national targets.

Thumbnail
Headline

Figure 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from ETS and ESR Sectors

Data source

ISPRA

Data legend

* For the purpose of comparison with the 2020 targets, the historical emission series up to 2020 is reported without applying the recalculation and the updated Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) introduced from 2021 onward.
** The target levels from 2006 to 2012 are calculated as an interpolation between the years 2005 and 2013 and do not represent official national targets.