GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT

The evolution of international climate policies traces a path of growing ambition: from the foundations of the UNFCCC in 1992, we moved on to the emission reduction constraints of the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Doha Amendment (2012), up to the decisive turning point of the Paris Agreement of 2015, which commits the world to limiting the increase in global temperature to within 1.5-2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.

At a national level, the control architecture has adapted to the international framework through the MASE, which entrusts ISPRA with the annual updating of the greenhouse gas inventory through the National System established by Legislative Decrees 51/2008 and 30/2013. Subsequently, Law 79/2016 integrated these functions by defining the national low emissions strategy and synergizing data communication with European Governance (EU Regulation 2018/1999), whose progress is formalized in the National Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate (PNIEC).

The European approach underwent an extraordinary acceleration with the launch of the European Green Deal and the subsequent European Climate Law of 2021, which transformed the objective of climate neutrality by 2050 into a legally binding obligation. This paradigm shift has made obsolete the old goals of the 2030 Framework approved in 2014, which envisaged a 40% cut in emissions, a 32% share of renewables and 32.5% efficiency gains. Through the "Fit for 55" legislative package and the RED III Directive, the European Union has raised its objectives for 2030, requiring a net reduction in greenhouse gases of at least 55% compared to 1990, bringing the binding target share for renewable energy to 42.5% of gross final consumption and imposing an 11.7% contraction in global energy consumption.

Within this collective effort, sectors not covered by the emissions trading system, such as transport, housing, agriculture and waste, are governed by the principle of effort sharing. If historically the 2009 Effort Sharing Decision assigned Italy a reduction target of 13% by 2020 compared to 2005, and the subsequent 2018 Regulation raised the bar to 33% for 2030, the recent and definitive revision of the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) has recalibrated the national targets. For Italy, the binding reduction obligation for 2030 has been drastically raised to -43.7%, imposing a profound economic and infrastructural restructuring in all affected sectors.

The transport sector represents the most sensitive axis of this transition, with the long-term objective of reducing its emissions by 90% by 2050, exceeding the old indicative guidelines expressed by the 2011 White Paper. For light vehicles, the stages set by the historic regulations of 2009 and 2011 have merged into EU Regulation 2019/631, in turn superseded by the EU Regulation 2023/851. Quest'ultimo testo delineava originariamente lo stop totale alla vendita di nuove auto a combustione interna entro il 2035, ma la normativa è stata recentemente aggiornata per accogliere il principio di neutralità tecnologica. The new orientation sets a target of 90% reduction in exhaust emissions by 2035, allowing the remaining 10% to be filled through the use of synthetic fuels and advanced biofuels, while for the transitional period manufacturers benefit from greater flexibility in calculating CO2 averages to avoid immediate sanctions in a phase of complex fluctuations in the electricity market.

Finally, the heavy and commercial transport segments have also seen crucial updates that go beyond the confines of the old 2009 Fuel Quality Directive. EU Regulation 2024/1610 has tightened the parameters for heavy vehicles, imposing CO2 reduction trajectories of 45% by 2030 and 90% by 2040, with the specific goal of zero emissions for new city buses already in 2035, mitigated only by more elastic mechanisms in the accumulation and compensation of emission credits among manufacturers. At the same time, the new rules on the circular economy impose minimum quotas of recycled plastic in the production of vehicles, while maritime transport, once excluded from stringent policies, has been fully integrated into the EU Maritime ETS system and bound by the FuelEU Maritime regulation, which imposes a progressive reduction in the carbon intensity of naval fuels in European ports.

From 2027 the market phase will be activated with the auctioning of emission quotas (system known as ETS2), for the sectors: building heating, road transport and industrial sectors excluded from the current ETS mechanism.

In 2026, the new and ambitious binding objective of a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 was formalized at European level, in line with climate neutrality by 2050.